A repeat of the devastation brought about by tropical storm “Ondoy” a year ago this Sunday is most unlikely to take place, regardless of the onset of rain-inducing La Niña, an official of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Saturday.
Dr. Susan Espinueva, chief of the PAGASA’s Hydrometeorology Division, stated there is “a minimal possibility” of one more “Ondoy” occurring in Metro Manila, simply because the onset of northeast monsoon or “hangingamihan” is expected to start in a few weeks from now or as early as October.
The northeast monsoon is the period when cold wind moves from Siberia and felt in the Philippines, which is also characterized by a typically drier condition from November to February.
“When ‘Ondoy’ struck the country, the storm was enhanced by the southwest monsoon (hanging habagat) and modified by the topography, that’s why the impact was intense. Those had been the ingredients to massive rains,” Espinueva explained in an interview.
“However, right now, we do not have the southwest monsoon as the northeast monsoon, which is normally drier, is setting in the country. The southwest monsoon normally has a tail that enhances a storm, but the northeast monsoon only affects the path of the storm,” she stated.
PAGASA reported that the quantity of rainfall dumped by “Ondoy” was recorded at 455 millimeters, exceeding the highest amount of rainfall previously documented on June 7, 1967 at 334.5 millimeters.
Ondoy brought on massive floods, especially in Metro Manila and nearby provinces of Rizal and Laguna, due to non-cease rains on Sept. 26, 2009.
Government records show that almost a million individuals or about 170,000 families had been affected adversely by “Ondoy” in 21 provinces in the country.
Meanwhile, at least 100,000 families sought shelter in evacuation shelters due to the floods.
Though PAGASA does not anticipate a repeat of Ondoy, Espinueva stated the effects of La Niña may be felt beginning October, and will last till early 2011 in some parts of the country.
“We are still in a transition period from El Niño to La Niña event, that’s why we do not really feel however the effects of La Niña,” she pointed out.
“We may really feel the effects of a full-blown La Niña in November, manifested by stronger storms and increased amount of rainfall in some locations, especially in the eastern portion of the nation,” she added.
Espinueva noted that La Niña will not adversely have an effect on Metro Manila because it is situated in the western portion of the nation.
PAGASA characterized La Niña or literally “The Small Girl” as the cooling of equatorial Pacific Ocean, which occurs each 3 to five years on the average that lasts nine months to 1 year.
“It is most often that we encounter typhoons in the last quarter of a year. The storms during this period cross land or make landfall, causing huge effects on areas that it will be passing by means of,” Espinueva said.
“During La Niña conditions, key parts of the nation knowledge near normal to above standard rainfall conditions, particularly over the eastern sections of the country. La Niña conditions also favor tropical cyclone formation over the western Pacific, which tend to enhance the number of tropical cyclones,” PAGASA said.
Based on the most recent La Niña advisory issued by the United States-based Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Niña strengthened in August, as negative sea surface temperature anomalies reached at least -1 degree Centigrade across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the end of the month.
“Nearly all models predict La Niña to continue at least through early 2011. It is most likely that the peak strength of this event will be at least moderate to strong,” it mentioned.
Espinueva mentioned the installation of Doppler radars all over the nation will assist the PAGASA monitor and estimate the amount of precipitation produced by a storm even just before an actual rainfall happens.
At present, 3 Doppler radars had been already in location — in Baler, Aurora Baguio City, and Subic Bay.
The Subic Bay radar is getting calibrated, although a two-week coaching for its use will begin prior to October.
PAGASA also expects to finish the installation of 4 other Doppler radars in Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur Cebu Tampakan, South Cotabato and Tagaytay City.
Espinueva pointed out that there are also automated weather stations (AWS) in diverse parts of the country to document rainfall information, especially during storms.
PAGASA plans to increase to 160 the number of installed AWS and set up 150 more rain gauges nationwide.
Green advocates, on the other hand, appealed to the public to use practical reusable options to plastic bags, such as the native “bayong” to prevent clogging waterways just like what happened throughout “Ondoy’s” fury when tons of garbage, primarily plastic items, had been recovered from the Marikina River.
A survey jointly conducted by the Eco-Waste Coalition and Greenpeace volunteers in 2006 revealed that the extent of plastic bags and other synthetic packaging materials retrieved from Manila Bay reached 76 percent of the four cubic meters of garbage.
Out of the 76 percent, 51 percent had been plastic carry bags, 19 percent junk food wrappers, and sachets, 5 percent Styrofoam, and 1 percent challenging plastics.
The rest of the recovered trash, were rubber, ten percent, and biodegradable waste, 13 percent.
Better ready
Malacañang assured that the Aquino administration is performing its greatest to stop the very same damage left by Ondoy from occurring in the future. Deputy Presidential Spokesperson Abigail Valte stated the Department of Science and Technologies (DoST) is now far better ready in handling such disaster which resulted in loss of lives and properties especially in the National Capital Region.
The state climate bureau, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) which is under the DoST, is now capable of issuing five-day forecasts that can simply be understood by the public, on leading of its day-to-day forecasts.
Disaster prevention
As the nation marks the first anniversary of Ondoy’s onslaught, authorities are now implementing an aggressive shift of technique in the government’s disaster response.
From exerting much more efforts on relief and rescue operations, Defense Secretary and concurrent National Disaster and Coordinating Council (NDCC) Chairman Voltaire Gazmin mentioned their focus is now much more on disaster prevention.
“We are in the procedure of totally implementing the mechanisms of a Disaster Threat Management program, an all encompassing method to shift from our focus on relief, to being ready for the probable risks,” said Gazmin.
Portion of the paradigm shift, he stated, is to map out all areas that are at high risk to floods, particularly in densely populated areas in Metro Manila and urban areas.
Other measures that are continuously getting developed, he stated, is to further enhance the capability to accurately predict climate disturbances’ paths and impact, the rapid communication warning and directions and the prepositioning of rescue and relief assets in flood and landslides-prone areas.
“We are at present implementing practical, scientific techniques and means to at least lessen the impact of final year’s tragedy. Mother Nature has its way of expressing her displeasure and we might have to radically adapt to extreme weather conditions. We must be prepared for the unexpected,” said Gazmin.
“We can all prevent turning into hapless victims by becoming conscious and knowledgeable of what to do in times of disasters. We can also avoid if not decrease the impact of final year’s flash floods by preserving our environment,” he added.
Gazmin mentioned simple acts of shunning indiscriminate dumping of garbage, from every small piece of paper or plastic, would be of large aid considering that it may prevent clogging the sewers.
National survival agenda
Meanwhile, Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile stated it’s not enough to identify the issue but act to address it even as he called on the government for the formation of a national survival agenda anchored on public finance and adaptation to climate alter.
“We know about the terrible effects of climate change and we are conscious that its impacts on the Philippines will worsen. Yet, it is basically not enough to just name the issue,” stated Enrile. “We want to identify lengthy-term solutions to the climate crisis along with the means to fund programs that will enable our men and women to cope with the quickly and dangerously altering climate,” Enrile said.
Realizing the genuine threat of climate change, Enrile known as for the retooling of the national budget to address the vulnerabilities of Filipino communities facing the projected enhance in severity and frequency of extreme climate events. The Senate President mentioned he is studying, and will file, a bill “that will generate a survival fund for nearby governments in anticipation of worsening impacts such as rising sea levels, intense flooding and extreme precipitation.”
“We must do everything we can to make positive that our communities much better prepared to face calamities which might once once more strike the country. We do not want a repeat of Ondoy. We want to safeguard lives and our communities,” he mentioned.
Written by John Patrick Lee
Philosophy Graduate, likes to write articles, poems, etc.
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